福建省1990—2009年森林火灾灾害风险评估

用灾害风险指数法、层次分析法及加权综合评价法对福建省1990—2009年森林火灾灾害风险进行评估，结果表明：福建省森林火灾灾害风险发生可能性表现稳定并有缓慢下降趋势；火灾潜在损失指标增势明显，震动中稳步上升；森林火灾灾害指数个别年份波动剧烈，总体成单调递增趋势；福建省森林火灾发生次数，特别是重大森林火灾发生次数剧增以及单位森林面积价值量不断提升是致使火灾风险不断增大的主导因素。

Risk Assessment on Forest Fire Disaster from 1990 to 2009 in Fujian Province

The risk assessment of forest fire disaster in Fujian Province from 1990 to 2009 was implemented by means of disaster risk index method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the weighted comprehensive evaluation (WCE) method. The results showed that the probability of forest fire disaster risk in Fujian Province was stable and with slowly dropping tendency, while the potential loss index of forest fire significantly and steadily grew up with vibration. The forest fire disaster index showed overall increasing trend though it fluctuated violently in some individual years. The dominant factors which caused the forest fire disaster risk to increase ceaselessly were that the forest fire occurrence frequency, especially the severe forest fire occurrence frequency was increased significantly and the value per unit area of forest was promoted constantly.