小麦条锈病大区流行的模型模拟

利用小麦条锈病品种-小种群体间相互关系模型即大区流行模型,PANCRIN,进行了模拟试验。模拟试验结果导致了如下推测或假想,如;1.陇南半山麦田的自生麦苗在大区流行中作用最大,但大区流行周年循环除冬麦和春麦→自生苗→冬麦这一主要路线外,可能还有一条冬麦→晚熟春麦→早播冬麦的次要路线。2.陇冬早播冬麦区在大区流行秋季菌源传播中的桥梁作用虽可肯定,但陇南 L2、L3自生苗上的菌源对关中、黄淮、江淮麦区 L7、L8、L9的作用仍然很大。3.消灭自生麦苗,必需把密度消减到历史最大密度的10%才能明显见效。4.不论新小种产生的突变率 MU 大小,全大区范围的品种布局比局布地区的,对延长广大平原麦区的品种抗病性更为有效;等等。这些结果一部分与已有经验或看法基本符合,另一部分则可为未知问题和有争议的问题的研究解决提供参考。

SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS ON THE PANDEMIC DYNAMIC OF WHEAT STRIPE RUST IN CHINA BY MEANS OF A SIMULATION MODEL PANCRIN

Simulation experiments were conducted by means of model of wheat stripe rust involving cultivar-race interation,called PA.NCRIN. From the results of simulation,several assumptions or hypothesis were tentatively deduced,such as:1.Volunteer wheat in lower mountain region of South Gansu seems to play the most important role in the year-round succession of the whole pandemic system of wheat stripe rust,but,in addition to this,there possibily be another pathway of over-summering of the pathogen,i.e.winter wheat,...