Dynamics in concentrations of Blumeria graminis f. sp tritici conidia and its relationship to local weather conditions and disease index in wheat

Experiments were conducted for 3 seasons, 2007–2008, 2008–2009 and 2009–2010 in a wheat field planted with a cultivar susceptible to powdery mildew in Langfang City, Hebei Province, China. Plants were inoculated with Blumeria graminis f. sp. tritici (Bgt) and conidia of Bgt in the air were trapped using volumetric spore samplers. Disease severity was recorded weekly. The relationships between airborne conidial concentrations and meteorological factors, as well as disease index were analyzed. Conidia were first detected about 20 days after inoculation in all three seasons, and then increased gradually with time. The highest conidial concentrations in the air were observed in mid-May 2008 and 2009 and late May 2010 at growth stage (GS) 10.5.4. The concentrations of Bgt conidia after inoculation (GS 5) to milky ripe (GS 11.1) in the air were positively correlated with temperature, solar radiation, and negatively with relative humidity and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Prediction models of Bgt conidial concentrations in the air based on meteorological factors were constructed using multiple regression analysis. Time series analysis, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p, d, q) models, showed that each of the three season’s data can be fitted with simple ARIMA (1, 0, 0) models. Conidial concentrations within the canopy were significantly higher than those above the canopy (P < 0.01). The weekly-accumulated mean hourly conidia per cubic metre of air significantly (P < 0.01) correlated with disease index in all three seasons.