中国木材市场供需系统的综合预测

运用系统工程原理与方法，提出了中国木材市场供需的综合预测法。在系统分析的基础上，将定量预测与定性分析、分类预测与整体预测相结合，进行多种预测模型的优化组合，并在预测过程中实行多重检验和多重反馈。从而克服了现有预测方法的弊端，提高了预测结果的精确性和可靠性。用该方法预测了２０１０年中国木材市场的供需状况。

INTEGRATED FORECASTING FOR THE DEMAND-AND-SUPPLY SYSTEM OF CHINESE TIMBER MARKET

By means of the principle and methodology of systems engineering, a new forecasting method- integrated forecasting method for the demand and supply of Chinese timber market is devised. On the basis of system analysis, quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis, classification forecasting and global forecasting are integrated 3 several forecasting models are optimally combined; multiple verification and multiple feedback are executed during the process of forecasting. Therefore, the various defects of the now available forecasting methods are overcome, so that the forecasting results become more precise and more reliable. The method of this paper is successfully applied in forecasting for the demand and supply of Chinese timber market till 2010.