旱涝灾害对陕西省粮食生产的影响研究

为揭示旱涝灾害发生的特征及对当地粮食生产的影响,运用数理统计方法对陕西省1971—2010年期间的旱涝灾害和粮食生产数据进行统计分析,研究旱涝灾害的发生对当地粮食生产的影响。结果表明:1971年以来,旱涝灾害发生在时间上呈单峰变化,1991—2000年期间,旱涝灾害发生最重,年平均灾害强度为25.7%;因旱涝灾害导致的粮食减产量也呈单峰变化规律,1991—2000年期间,旱涝灾害对陕西的粮食生产影响最重(年平均粮食减产量达157.7万t),进入21世纪的10年间,陕西因旱涝灾害导致的粮食减产量呈下降趋势(年平均粮食减产量达104.1万t)。20世纪90年代,旱涝灾害的发生强度及其对粮食产量的影响最大,进入21世纪后旱涝灾害对陕西粮食生产的影响程度较20世纪90年代有所缓解。

Influence of drought and flood disasters on gra in productionin Shaanxi Province

The study is to promulgate the character and influence of drought and flood disasters on grain production in Shaanxi Province.Based on the statistical data of drought and flood disasters and grain production from 1971 to 2010 in Shaanxi Province,the impact of drought and flood on grain production was researched.The results show that the strength of affected area and damaged area caused by drought and flood disasters is of fluctuation,the occurrence frequency of drought and flood is most heavily from 1991 to 2000.Disaster-induced intensity of drought and flood on grain production became more and more obvious fluctuately,but during 2001-2010,the reduction of grain production caused by drought and flood disasters was less than that during 1991-2000.The impact of drought and flood on food production is of fluctuation,in 21st century,drought and flood disasters on food production have less impact compared with 90’s in 20th century.