对青岛市2009～2040年的人口老龄化过程预测

一个国家或地区的人口老龄化过程进行准确预测是制定相应的宏观政策的重要依据。灰色预测将随机过程看成是在一定范围内变化的、与时间有关的灰色过程，根据GM (1，1)模型的建模机理，建立了青岛市老年人口数量与老年人口所占比重的灰色预测模型；利用模型预测得出2009～2040年青岛市老年人口数量与老年人口所占比重，并得到2035年老年人口数量将比2009年翻一番；分析了青岛市人口老龄化的成因，主要原因是青岛市20世纪50年代至60年代的两次生育高峰的影响，其次是由于在20世纪70年代采取计划生育政策使生育率下降，导致青少年人口比重降低；提出了逐步延长工作年限、提高退休年龄来解决劳动力不足的问题，建立健全城乡养老社会保障体系等应对人口老龄化的对策。

Study on the Grey Prediction of population aging process of Qingdao City from 2009 to 2040

The accurate prediction of population aging process in a country or region is an important basis for the establishment of corresponding macropolicies. Stochastic process in grey prediction is regarded as time-dependent grey process within a certain range of variation. According to GM (1,1) modeling mechanism, the prediction models of the number and the proportion of aging population in Qingdao City are set up. The number and the proportion of the aging population from 2009 to 2040 are attained based on the prediction models.The number of the aging population in 2035 will be double the one in 2009.The causes of the population aging of Qingdao City are analysed. The first cause is the impact of the two birth booms of Qingdao City between 1950s and 1960s. Secondly, the proportion of youngsters population is reduced as a result of the birth control from the beginning of 1970s.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward ,such as extending gradually the length of work and raising the retirement age to solve the problem of labor shortage, and establishing perfect old-age social security system of the city and the countryside.