气候变化背景下吉林省春玉米冷害特征研究

为了研究气候变化背景下过去55年及未来35年吉林省春玉米冷害的时空变化特征，笔者利用气象行业标准《北方春玉米冷害评估技术规范》规定的指标和计算方法，分析了1961—2015年以及2种未来气候情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下2016—2050年吉林省春玉米冷害的时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）1961–2015年及2种情景下2016—2050年各地区5—9月月平均气温之和均呈增加趋势，但RCP8.5情景下的5—9月月平均气温之和均高于RCP4.5情景。（2）1961—2015年吉林省西部和中部中度冷害发生频率较高，东部重度冷害发生频率较高。（3）RCP4.5情景下冷害频率高于RCP8.5情景，冷害均集中在东部。（4）1996年之前春玉米冷害范围以大范围冷害为主，之后均为局部冷害；RCP4.5情景下以区域性冷害发生为主；RCP8.5情景下以局部冷害为主。未来气候变暖背景下吉林春玉米冷害时空变化特征研究结果可为吉林省农业生产的防灾减灾工作提供技术支撑。

Spring Maize in Jilin: Characteristics of Chilling Injury Under Climate Change

To study the spatial and temporal characteristics of chilling injury of spring maize in past 55 years and future 35 years in Jilin, the authors analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of chilling injury of spring maize in Jilin from 1961 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2050 under 2 future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), based on the chilling injury index and calculation method by the regulation of the Technical Specification for Chilling Injury Assessment to Spring Maize in Northern China. The results showed that: (1) the sum of the monthly average temperature from May to September from 1961 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2050 under 2 scenarios increased gradually, while that under RCP8.5 scenario was higher than that under RCP4.5 scenario; (2) the occurrence frequency of moderate chilling injury was higher in western and central Jilin from 1961 to 2015, and the occurrence frequency of serious chilling injury was higher in eastern Jilin; (3) the chilling injury was mainly occurred in eastern region under RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario, while the occurrence frequency of chilling injury under RCP4.5 scenario was higher than that under RCP8.5 scenario; (4) the range of influenced by chilling injury was mainly large range before 1996, and was local range after 1996; it was mainly regional range under RCP4.5 scenario and the local range under RCP8.5 scenario. The spatial and temporal characteristics of chilling injury of spring maize under the background of climate change can provide technical support for disaster prevention and mitigation of agricultural production in Jilin.