| 区域农业灌溉用水量长期预报模型研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 邵东国,郭元裕,沈佩君. 区域农业灌溉用水量长期预报模型研究[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 1998, 0(3) |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 邵东国 郭元裕 沈佩君 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 武汉水利电力大学 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 农业灌溉用水是一动态、非平衡随机过程，其水量预报中存在灰色不确定信息。如何通过大面积农业灌溉用水量的长期预报，指导灌区用水实时管理，则是水利工程规划管理和农业高效用水中待研究的重要问题。本文基于时间序列分析方法，建立了区域农业灌溉用水量长期预报分解模型，给出了灰色ＧＭ（１，１）趋势预测、方差周期分析以及ＡＲＭＡ（２ｎ，２ｎ－１）随机分析相结合的模型求解方法，并编制了相应模型软件支持系统。该系统具有自动进行模型特性检验、结构识别、参数优选及拟合预测计算等优点。应用所提模型，对南水北调中线进行农业灌溉用水量的年预报研究，取得了满意结果，由此表明所提模型与方法是合理可行的。
|
| 关 键 词： | 灌溉用水 长期预报 时间序列分析 |
Research on Long-term Forecast Model of Regional Irrigation Water Requirement |
| |
| Shao dongguo Guoyuanyu Shen peijum. Research on Long-term Forecast Model of Regional Irrigation Water Requirement[J]. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 1998, 0(3) |
| |
| Authors: | Shao dongguo Guoyuanyu Shen peijum |
| |
| Abstract: | Irrigation is very important for agricultural development and forcasting accurately the regional long term irrigation water still a difficulf task requirement. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the features of irigation water process and put forward a decomposed model for the long term forecasting of regional irrigation water requirement,which is based on time series analysis.Several algorithms,such as gray GM(1,1)and ARMA(2n,2n-1),are given for solving the model.The result of calculation shows that the model is reasonable. |
| |
| Keywords: | irrigation water requirement time series analysis long term forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
