Simulation of aflatoxin testing plans for shelled peanuts in the United States and in the export market

The 1987 United States aflatoxin testing plan for shelled peanuts was designed with a final accept level of 25 parts per billion (ppb) total aflatoxin. Some of the importers of U.S. peanuts use aflatoxin testing plans with accept levels lower than 25 ppb. For example, the accept level of a testing plan used in The Netherlands is 5 ppb B1 or 10 ppb total aflatoxin. Whenever export lots are re-tested for aflatoxin by an importing country, some lots accepted in the United States will be rejected by the importing country's aflatoxin testing plan. Computer models were developed to determine the effects of decreasing the final accept level of the U.S. testing plan on the number of lots accepted and rejected in the United States and the number of exported lots accepted and rejected by The Netherlands testing plan. Decreasing the final accept level of the U.S. testing plan from 25 to 5 ppb increased the number of lots rejected in the United States by 371% while reducing the number of exported lots rejected by 51%. For every additional 8.3 lots rejected in the United States, one less export lot will be rejected.