应用GM（1，1）包络灰平面对林木年采伐限额的控制

赤峰市松山区现有林木年蓄积量虽然呈增加趋势，但由于各种因素的影响，使全区林木年蓄积增加量变化幅度较大，为合理采伐利用林木资源，本文根据全区林木年蓄积增长量原始数据列，建立GM（1，1）包络灰平面，并按GM模型建模机理，用微分自吹自擂心合原始数据，求得预测曲线，使预测值落在某一范围内，为确定最佳年采伐限额提供了科学依据。

Controlling Annual Cutting Norm of Forest Trees wlth GM (1, 1) Enveloping Grey Surface

Although present annual amount of growing stock is increasing, annual amount of growing stock in whole region changes in a big margin, which is effected by some factors. In this report, based on initial data array of annual increase of growing stock, GM(1, 1) enveloping grey surface is set up, and predictive curve is obtained by fitting initial data with differential equation according to mecha- nism of GM model. Scientific basis has been provided for determining the optimum annual cutting norm.