胶东丘陵区冬小麦生育期低温冷害预警模型研究

以30年(1979～2009)的冬小麦产量和生育期温度资料为依据,分析冬小麦生长发育期旬均温的变化规律及其与相对气象产量的关系,确立冬小麦生育期可能出现的低温风险。结果表明:胶东丘陵生态区冬小麦生育期间,两个旬均温对相对气象产量的影响显著,分别为1月中旬均温和3月上旬均温,相关系数分别为-0.44和0.37;模型中的温度因子类型共有5个,模型的相关也达到了极显著水平。

Study on Early Warning Model of Low Temperature and Cold Damage during Growth Period of Winter Wheat in Jiaodong Hills Area of Shandong Province

Based on the data of winter wheat yield and temperature during growth period in 30 years from 1979 to 2009,the variation rules of mean temperature in a period of ten days and its relationship with relative meteorological production were analyzed to make sure the probable low-temperature risk appeared during the growth period of winter wheat.The results showed that the mean temperature of the middle ten days of January and the first ten days of March affected the relative meteorological production significantly with the correlation coefficient as-0.44 and 0.37 respectively.There were 5 temperature factors in the warning model,and the significance of the model reached 0.01 level.