草科-田湾泥石流风险性评价

石棉县草科-田湾地区曾经多次发生大型泥石流，造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。在大渡河流域石棉县地质灾害详查资料的基础上，以一级分水岭为界限，采用单沟泥石流风险评估方法对草科-田湾地区的26条泥石流沟进行了分析，确定了危险性和易损性的主要影响因素，并逐一分析了各条泥石流沟的危险性、易损性和风险性评价。然后采用由点至面的方法得到了泥石流风险性分布图，进而确定了各风险区的分布范围。结果表明，草科-田湾地区村庄附近的泥石流的危险性以中度风险和高度风险为主，沿沟谷有一定的分布特征。可为汛期地质灾害预警预报及今后治理次序提供参考依据。

Risk Evaluation of Debris Flows of Caoke-Tianwan

A series of large scale debris flows have been occurred in Caoke Township of Shimian County, which caused serious casualties and property losses. Based on the detailed investigation of geological disasters in Shimian County of Dadu River Basin, 26 first-ordered gullies with the risk of the occurrence of debris flows were evaluated with single gully debris flow risk assessment method. The main factors that influenced the risk and vulnerability were determined. The potential risk and vulnerability of the 26 gullies were analyzed. The distribution maps for the risk of debris flow were prepared by the method of from the points to surfaces. And the distribution range of each risk area was determined. The results showed that the main risk of debris flow of study areas belonged moderate risk and high risk. Some distribution characteristics along the gullies were presented. The analysis results could provide reference bases for the geological disaster warning and forecasting during the flood season in this area.