甘肃省耕地面积动态演变及驱动力研究

根据1997～2011年甘肃省耕地面积统计资料,运用ArcView软件,分析甘肃省耕地面积时空变化特征,得出甘肃省耕地面积总量呈现先减后增的态势,各州县耕地面积变动情况也大不相同。利用SPSS软件,分析造成这种变化的主要驱动力,结果表明,甘肃省林地面积和耕地面积的相关系数的绝对值最大为0.998,说明国家的"退耕还林"政策是影响甘肃省耕地面积增长的第一因素;全省国民经济生产总值和耕地面积的相关系数的绝对值为0.965,说明经济发展是制约甘肃省耕地面积增长的第二因素;城镇化率和耕地面积的相关系数的绝对值为0.802,说明甘肃省城镇化的发展也从很大程度上制约了耕地面积的增长。

Cultivated Land Dynamic Change and Driving Force Research of Gansu Province

According to farmland area statistics of Gansu Province during 1997-2011,by using ArcView software,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics were analyzed.The results showed that cultivated land area in Gansu Province first decreased and then increased,the area changes are not the same.By using SPSS software,the main driving force of this change was analyzed.The absolute value of the correlation coefficient of forest area and the cultivated area of the maximum is 0.998,indicating the policy of returning farmland to forest is the first factor that influences cultivated land area of growth.The absolute value of correlation coefficient of the province's GDP and the cultivated area is 0.965,which is the second factor restricting the economic development of cultivated land area of growth.The absolute value of the correlation coefficient,urbanization rate and the cultivated area is 0.802,indicating the urban development in Gansu Province largely restricted the growth of cultivated land area.