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中国玉米燃料乙醇项目经济性评估
引用本文:方芳,于随然,王成焘.中国玉米燃料乙醇项目经济性评估[J].农业工程学报,2004,20(3):239-242.
作者姓名:方芳  于随然  王成焘
作者单位:上海交通大学机械动力工程学院,生命质量与机械工程研究所,上海,200030
基金项目:中美能源基金(G-0205-06347)
摘    要:该文从微观角度分析评估中国玉米燃料乙醇生产项目的经济及投资风险。通过考察玉米燃料乙醇试点生产厂及当地玉米产区,根据相关文献修正不具备地区一般性的数据,基于Excel建立东北地区玉米燃料乙醇项目基础案例,同时用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo)模拟法模拟项目运营的现金流和净现值,并对模拟结果进行敏感性分析。最终得出结论,中国玉米燃料乙醇项目若无外部补贴则不可接受;同时依据敏感性分析结果论述了玉米燃料乙醇项目的经济性在将来得到改善的条件及可能性。

关 键 词:玉米燃料乙醇    经济可行性    风险评估    项目评估
文章编号:1002-6819(2004)03-0239-04
收稿时间:2003/11/10 0:00:00
修稿时间:2003年11月10

Economic assessment on corn-based fuel ethanol projects in China
Fang Fang,Yu Suiran and Wang Chengtao.Economic assessment on corn-based fuel ethanol projects in China[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2004,20(3):239-242.
Authors:Fang Fang  Yu Suiran and Wang Chengtao
Abstract:This paper aims to assess the economic feasibility and long-term investment risks of corn-based fuel ethanol(CFE) projects in China. First, based on CFE production processes and data collected on-site, internal cost model of CFE was set up first, and then the projects' net cash flow(NCF) and net present value (NPV) were simulated in computer using Monte Carlo method. Thereafter, reasons underlying the results were analyzed through sensitivity analysis, revealing that CFE has little possibility to get accepted for the time being, and possible solution scenarios were proposed, too.
Keywords:corn-based fuel ethanol  economic feasibility  risk assessment  project assessment
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