区域粮食生产系统变化趋势分析与预测

利用浙江省区域粮食生产系统时间序列数据,分析粮食种植面积、总产和单产等生产指标的变化特征及趋势,结果表明各区种植面积呈大幅减少趋势,减少幅度浙北>浙中西>浙南;粮食总产呈显著减少趋势,减少幅度浙北>浙中西>浙南;粮食单产均呈增加趋势,增加的幅度浙南>浙北>浙中西,但增幅都较小。利用综合增长率或减少率法,分别建立悲观、一般、乐观条件下的粮食生产系统预测方案,并以实际生产指标值为基数,预测未来粮食的总产、种植面积和单产。

Analysis and Prediction on Changing Trend of the District Crop Production System

With Zhejiang province as case,for the production index of acreage,total production and the yield,the variation feature and trend were analyzed based on the chronological data of food crop production system.The results showed that the acreage was decreasing sharply, the acreage decreasing, north Zhejiang > mid-west Zhejiang > south Zhejiang. Total production,the changing trend was decreasing, the total production decreasing, north Zhejiang > mid-west Zhejiang > south Zhejiang.The yield every year in Zhejiang increased,the yield increasing, south Zhejiang > north Zhejiang > mid-west Zhejiang. According to the variation feature of food crop production index,the integrated growth rate method was used to calculate the integrated growth rate or the integrated reduction rate. For food crop production system ,the pessimistic,normal and optimistic prediction plans were established, respectively,and future,acreage total production and yield per unit area of food crop were predicted based on the actual production indexes.