| 基于CA-Markov模型的自然保护区土地利用变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王俊杰,刘珏,石铁柱,邬国锋. 基于CA-Markov模型的自然保护区土地利用变化分析[J]. 安徽农业大学学报, 2016, 43(5): 780-786. DOI: 10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20160929.015 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王俊杰 刘珏 石铁柱 邬国锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 深圳大学海岸带地理环境监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室,深圳,518060;国营北海防护林场,北海,536000;深圳大学海岸带地理环境监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室,深圳518060;武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉430079 |
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| 基金项目： | 财政部林业公益性行业科研专项经费（201404305）资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 以广西山口红树林自然保护区为研究区,1999和2005年SPOT4影像作为土地利用信息源,采用CA-Markov模型预测2011年和2017年研究区土地利用空间变化,在此基础上利用11个景观指数分析1999-2017年研究区整体景观格局演变情况。结果显示,CA-Markov模型模拟的2005年土地利用空间分布的面积和空间精度分别为93.13%和87.57%,具有较高可靠度;1999-2005年各用地类型的相互转化较为复杂;2005-2011年,红树林和养殖区增长最为显著;1999-2017年间,斑块数呈下降趋势,景观破碎化程度在减轻,受人类活动的影响在减弱,各斑块类型在景观中呈均衡化趋势分布,但景观稳定性和抗干扰性下降。研究表明CA-Markov模型是模拟与预测自然保护区土地利用变化的有力工具,能为土地规划与管理提供一定的决策信息。
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| 关 键 词： | CA-Markov模型 土地利用变化 景观指数 遥感影像 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-12-30 |
Analysis of land-use changes in Shankou mangrove forest natural reserve using CA-Markov model |
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| WANG Junjie,LIU Jue,SHI Tiezhu and WU Guofeng. Analysis of land-use changes in Shankou mangrove forest natural reserve using CA-Markov model[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural University, 2016, 43(5): 780-786. DOI: 10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20160929.015 |
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| Authors: | WANG Junjie LIU Jue SHI Tiezhu WU Guofeng |
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| Affiliation: | Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Coastal Zone (GEMCO) of the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and GeoInformation, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060,State-owned Beihai Protection Forest Farm, Beihai 536000,Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Coastal Zone (GEMCO) of the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and GeoInformation, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060 and Key Laboratory for Geo-Environmental Monitoring of Coastal Zone (GEMCO) of the National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and GeoInformation, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060; School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079 |
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| Abstract: | A CA-Markov model was used to predict the spatial changes of land utlization in 2011 and 2017. Eleven landscape metrics were implemented to analyze the entire-landscape pattern changes from 1999 to 2017 in Shankou Mangrove Forest Natural Reserve in Guangxi province using SPOT-4 remote sensing images in 1999 and 2005 as the information sources of land-use. The results showed that the area and space precisions of simulated 2005 land-use spatial distribution using CA-Markov model were 93.13% and 87.57%, respectively. The land-use transition into each other was complex from 1999 to 2005. The area of the mangrove and mariculture zone experienced the most pronounced increase from 2005 to 2011. During 1999-2017, the number of patches declined; the landscape fragmentation weakened with decreasing human disturbances; and the patch types showed an equalization distribution with declining landscape stability and interference immunity. This study demonstrated that the CA-Markov model is an effective tool for simulating and predicting the land-use change in a Natural Reserve, and providing useful decision-making support for land-use planning and management. |
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| Keywords: | CA-Markov model land-use change landscape metric remote sensing image |
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