基于博弈论法确定灌区运行状况综合评价指标的权重

为了确定综合评价过程中的指标权重系数是否合理,考虑评价结果的合理性和科学性.通过运用博弈论思想将主观的层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)和客观的变异系数法(variation coefficient method, CVM)确定的权重系数集成得到最终的权重结果,并以“驱动力-状态-响应”(DSR)模型为基础,建立了一套大型灌区运行状况综合评价指标体系,将得到的主观权重、客观权重和综合权重分别运用到灌区运行状况的综合评价中进行实证分析,研究结果表明:基于博弈论确定的综合权重对灌区进行评价的结果既能体现决策者的主观要求,又能符合灌区实际运行状况.该方法过程简洁,结果科学、客观,具有较好的通用性.

Determining weights of comprehensive evaluation indexes for irrigation district operation performance by method of game theory

In order to decide if the weight of an index for comprehensive evaluating operation perfor-mance of irrigation district is reasonable and to consider whether the outcomes of an evaluation are rational and scientific, we apply subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective variation coefficient method into determination of a series of weight based on game theory in this paper. Then we integrate these individual weights into final weights. Further, based on the driving force-state-response model, we build a comprehensive evaluation system to assess the operational performance of a large irrigation district. At last, we evaluate the operational condition of Jinghui Canal Irrigation District in Shaanxi by means of this system. The results show that the decided comprehensive weights can involve decision-makers′ subjective requirements but also can represent the actual operational circumstance of an irrigation district. Besides, the evaluating process is simple, scientific, objective, and universal, so it can provide a proper evaluation for the operational situation of an irrigation district.