海南冬种瓜菜干旱风险评估与区划

利用海南省18个地面气象站1998-2011年的逐日气象观测资料，结合海南冬种西瓜、豇豆、辣椒和丝瓜的种植面积和产量资料，运用自然灾害风险分析原理和方法测算海南冬种瓜菜的干旱气候风险、灾损减产风险和防旱抗旱能力，同时综合以上3个指标得到干旱综合风险指数，并基于干旱综合风险指数进行干旱风险区划。结果表明，海南岛冬种瓜菜干旱综合风险指数基本呈由东北向西南递增的趋势，高风险区集中在其西部和南部地区，主要包括东方市、昌江县和乐东县等。经检验，风险区划结果与生产实际基本相符。研究结果可为海南冬种瓜菜防旱减灾风险管理提供科学依据。

Risk Assessment and Distribution of Winter Drought for Melon and Vegetables in Hainan Island

Based on daily meteorological data from 18 meteorological stations，crop sown area and yield data in Hainan Island from 1998 to 2011，the winter drought risk，yield loss risk for melon and vegetables and their drought resistant capacity were calculated by using natural disaster risk analysis principle and method. The comprehensive drought risk index was established based on three indices，including drought risk index，yield loss index and drought resistant capacity index for watermelon，cowpea，paprika and luffa. The risk distribution of winter drought was conducted in Hainan Island. The results showed that the comprehensive drought risk index of above four kinds of melon and vegetables increased from the northeast to the southwest in Hainan Island，with peak value located in mainly Dongfang，Changjiang and Ledong counties. The result could provide reference to manage winter drought risk for melon and vegetables in Hainan Island.