我国小麦供需平衡监测体系组建与应用

依据安全与经济相结合、全面与重要相结合、理论与实际相结合(可操作性)、先行与同步相结合原则,针对我国小麦生产设计了自给率、生产(播种面积)安全线、国家储备安全线、企业库存安全线、农户存粮安全线、市场价格振幅及区域平衡率等7个主要监测指标,据此,对当前小麦供需状况警情进行了分析,并提出近阶段确保小麦供需平衡的措施。

The design and application of monitoring indices system for wheat supplies and demands balance

Wheat supplies and demands balance(WSDB) monitoring system is a set of quantified indices system that can explain the status of wheat supplies and demands(WSD).According to several principles such as the combination of security and economics,integration and importance,theory and practice,and antecedence and synchronization,this paper designs seven main monitoring indices including self-sufficient rate,sowing security base line,state storage security base line,industry storage security base line,farmers' storage security base line,market price swing range and regional balance rate.Furthermore,the paper analyses the alarm signal of WSD,and brings forward the measurements to insure WSDB at present time.