北方农牧交错带人地系统耦合协调的时空特征及障碍因子

人地系统协调是实现可持续发展的重要前提，探究北方农牧交错带人地系统耦合协调特征及障碍因素，对适时推进乡村振兴、实现农牧区高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究基于人地系统类型结构，从农牧业、村庄、乡域、城镇4个层面构建指标体系，运用耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型，分析人地系统发展水平、耦合协调程度及人地系统协调的障碍因素。结果表明：2000—2020年，北方农牧交错带人地系统发展水平呈现上升性和空间非均衡性，农牧业、村庄子系统发展相对滞后，乡域子系统发展水平增幅明显；人地系统耦合度基本处于高水平耦合阶段，协调度稳步提高，整体由轻度失调衰退向勉强协调发展转变，空间上呈现由西北向东南递减的格局；阻碍人地系统协调水平提升的主要因素为乡村人均草地面积、人均GDP、乡村人均肉产量，且障碍程度不断增强；子系统障碍度顺序为农牧业>村庄>城镇>乡域，农牧业、村庄子系统障碍作用突出，乡域子系统障碍作用明显减弱。综上，北方农牧交错带人地系统耦合协调水平稳步提升，但仍面临农牧结构平衡、生态环境保护、三产融合发展等诸多挑战。

Spatio-temporal characteristics and obstacle factors of human-land system coupling coordination in farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China

Human-land system coordination is an important prerequisite for achieving sustainable development. Exploring the coupling coordination characteristics and obstacle factors of human-land systems in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China plays a significant role in timely promotion of rural revitalization and realizing high-quality development in farming and pastoral areas. Based on the model of human-earth system type structure, a comprehensive evaluation index system of human-land system was constructed from the aspects of agriculture and animal husbandry, village, rural area, and township. The development level, coupling coordination degree, and obstacle factors of the human-land system were analyzed using the coupling coordination degree model and the obstacle degree model. The following results were obtained that the development level of the human-land system in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China showed an upward trend and spatial imbalance from 2000 to 2020. The development levels of the agriculture and animal husbandry and the village subsystems were relatively backward, and the development level of the rural area subsystem has significantly increased. The mean coupling degree of the human-land system was in the high-level coupling stage. The degree of coordination has steadily improved, and the overall change has been from mild dissonance to barely coordinated development. The space presented a spatial pattern of decreasing from the northwest to the southeast. The main obstacles to the improvement of the coordination level of the human-land system were rural per capita grassland area, per capita GDP, and rural per capita meat production, and the degree of obstacles continued to increase. The order of subsystem obstacle degrees was agriculture and animal husbandry > village > township > rural area. The obstacle degrees of the agriculture and animal husbandry and the village subsystems were prominent, and the obstacle degree of the rural area subsystem was weakened. The coupling coordination level of the human-land system in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China has steadily improved, but it still faces many challenges such as the balance of the agricultural and pastoral structure, ecological environment protection, and the integrated development of the tertiary industry.