基于Landsat影像的抚仙湖流域土地利用变化及预测研究

以云南抚仙湖流域1974年、1988年、1996年、2001年、2005年、2010年和2015年7期Landsat遥感影像为基础数据，通过目视解译和支持向量机相结合的方法进行土地利用类型分类，并采用土地利用动态度、综合程度指数、转移矩阵等模型，定量分析抚仙湖流域土地利用类型的变化过程，最后基于CA-Markov模型对未来土地利用情况进行预测模拟。结果表明：1974—2015年乔木林、灌草丛和水域面积呈持续下降趋势，主要的转出方向为农田，建设用地面积增加主要来源于农田，湿地和裸地呈逐年增加趋势，上述变化趋势与当地社会经济快速发展有关；总体分类精度为90.29 %，满足精度要求；土地利用预测趋势为乔木林、水域面积保持减少态势，灌草丛、湿地面积呈增加趋势，农田扩张现象依然存在。本研究可为抚仙湖流域土地及水资源的科学规划、保护和合理利用提供参考。

Landsat Images Based Simulations of Land Use Change in Fuxian Lake Basin

Land use types were classified through a combination of visual interpretation and support vector machines, based on 7 Landsat remote sensing images (1974, 1988, 1996, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015) of Fuxian Lake Basin in Yunnan Province. The land use dynamic degree, comprehensive degree index, transfer matrix and other models were used to quantitatively analyze the land use types change process in Fuxian Lake Basin. Finally, CA-Markov model was used to predict and simulate future land use. The results are as follows: the area of arbor forest, shrub grass and water area from 1974 to 2015 shows a continuous downward trend, the main direction of diversion is farmland, the increase of construction land area mainly comes from farmland, the trend of wetland and bare land is increasing year by year. The above trends are related to the rapid development of local society and economy. The accuracy of land use is 90.29%, which meets the precision requirement. The trend of land use prediction is arbor forest, water area keeps decreasing trend, shrub grass area, wetland area shows an increasing trend, farmland expansion phenomenon still exists. This study can be provided a reference for the scientific planning, protection, and rational use of land and water resources in the Fuxian Lake Basin.