顶张紧式立管作业风险源识别与失效模型

顶张紧式立管(Top Tensioned Riser,TTR)主要应用于深水油气田开发中的单柱式平台和张力腿平台,为了保证海洋工程作业的安全可靠,对复杂载荷条件下顶张紧式立管作业过程中的风险进行了分析。根据美国大陆架区域立管失效资料整理、统计结果,对立管关键工作步骤的危险与可操作性分析进行风险源的识别;将风险源按照因果关系建立了TTR的失效故障树,通过上行法求出故障树的最小割集;将模糊数学的层次分析法与专家评价法相结合,对故障树进行定量分析。基于专家评价结果,确定了故障树中基本风险事件、顶事件的发生概率,并针对概率较大的风险事件提出了防控措施。通过对TTR作业风险源进行识别,建立了基于故障树的失效模型,解决了深水立管事故数据缺乏且不确定性较高的问题,为深水立管的风险管理提供了参考。

Risk source identification and failure model for the operation of top tensioned riser

The Top Tensioned Riser(TTR)is mainly applied to single column platforms and tension leg platforms in the development of deep water oil and gas.The risks in the operation of the TTR were analyzed to guarantee the safety and reliability of ocean engineering operation.Based on the data processing and statistical analysis results of the riser failure data in the continental shelves of the United States,the risk sources were identified by conducting the HAZOP analysis on the key operating procedures of the riser.The fault tree of TTR failure was established on the basis of the causality of the risk sources,and the minimum cut set was achieved by ascending method.Integrating the analytic hierarchy process of fuzzy mathematics and experts grading method,the fault tree was analyzed quantitatively.The probabilities of occurrence of basic risk events and top events in the fault tree were determined,on the grounds of the experts grading.The problem of deficiency and high uncertainty of data is solved by identifying the risk sources in the operation of TTR and establishing a fault-tree based failure model.This research provides a reference for the risk management of deepwater risers.