基于产能理论的河北省卢龙县耕地可转化为新增建设用地量预测

以县级土地利用总体规划编制为背景，从协调耕地保护与建设用地发展之间的矛盾出发，在河北省卢龙县2010-2020年土地利用总体规划修编工作基础上，以产能理论为指导，结合卢龙县农用地分等定级成果，从土地、土地整理和土地复垦三方面进行粮食生产能力测算，预测出卢龙县2020年耕地粮食生产能力为215330.09t。通过产能预测及粮食需求量预测，预测出卢龙县2020年粮食需求量为211000.10t，则在保障区域粮食安全前提下耕地粮食生产能力剩余量为4329.99t。由此得出卢龙县到2020年有768.07~1179.02hm²的不同质量的耕地可以作为工业化、城镇化发展的新增建设用地。该研究可为县域新增建设用地的科学合理预测提供理论和方法支撑。

Prediction of Newly Increased Construction Land Transformed from Cultivated Land in Lulong County of Heibei Province Based on Capacity Theory

On the background of general county-level landuse planning,the study is conducted to coordinate the contradiction between farmland protection and construction development.Based on Lulong Countys general landuse planning reformulation in 2010-2020 and capacity theory,as combined with the outcome of agricultural classification and gradation,the county's productivity in 2020 is predicted to be 215 330.09 tons from the aspects of land development,consolidation and reclamation.Drain demand of the county in 2020 is predicted to be 21 000.10 tons using productivity and grain demand prediction methods and thus remaining grain productivity will be 4 329.99 tons under the precondition of regional food security.It is concluded that the county will have 768.07-1179.02 hmz farmland that may be used as newly increased construction land for industrialization and urbanization.Result from the study provides theory and methods for the prediction of newly increased construction land,reasonably and scientifically.