徐州市粮食生产影响因素的定量研究

采用因子分析方法定量分析了建国以来徐州市粮食生产主要因素的影响程度。从主要影响因素来看,徐州市粮食生产可分为1949~1984年单产提高与机械化共同推进阶段,1984~1999年农业资金投入和水利化共同推进阶段,1999~2005年粮播面积与粮食单产共同推进阶段。在此基础上,总结出各要素的"集体效应"是粮食产量提高的关键,并认为适度扩大粮食播种面积、提高粮食单产、提升农业水利化、机械化水平、增加农业投入等是徐州粮食生产的发展趋势。

The Quantitative Study on Influencing Factors of Xuzhou Grain Production

The influence degrees of the main factors of Xuzhou grain production since the founding of new China were quantitatively analyzed by factor analysis method.Viewing from the main influencing factors,Xuzhou grain production could be classified as the phase of common promotion of unit area grain yield increase and mechanization in 1949～1984,the phase of common promotion of agricultural fund input and agricultural water conservancy in 1984～1999 and the phase of common promotion of grain sowing area and unit area grain yield in1999～2005.Based on these,it was summarized that the "collective effect" of the factors was the key of increasing grain yield and it was thought that rational enlarging the grain sowing area,enhancing unit area grain yield,advancing agricultural water conservancy and agricultural mechanization level,and increasing agricultural input and so on were the development tendency of Xuzhou grain production.