气候适宜度在内蒙古东北部马铃薯发育期预报中的应用

为了建立内蒙古东北部马铃薯发育期预报模型，通过采用内蒙古东北部地区16个气象站，2003—2012年逐日最高气温、最低气温、日照时数、降水量、土壤水分资料和马铃薯生育期观测资料和相关农业气象指标，计算了马铃薯不同生育阶段的温度适宜度、日照适宜度和水分适宜度，进而研究了内蒙古东北部不同区域的马铃薯气候适宜度，建立了基于气候适宜度的马铃薯发育期预报模型。结果表明，大兴安岭以东，大兴安岭以西及大兴安岭山地3个气候小区域的模拟值与实际值的平均误差在2天以内，各发育期误差的平均值也在2天以内；预报检验结果表明，各区域各发育阶段预报误差的平均值，除大兴安岭山地的预报误差为3.4天外，其他区域的预报误差都在1.0天以下。预报模型效果较好，可用于该地区进行马铃薯发育期预报。

The Development Period Prediction of Potato Based on Climate Suitability in the Northeastern of Inner Mongolia

In order to establish prediction models of potato at different growth stages, the authors used data of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours, rainfall, soil moisture of 16 weather stations in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia from 2003 to 2012, as well as observation data of potato at different growth stages and related agricultural meteorological index, to calculate temperature suitability, sunshine suitability degree and water suitability degree at different growth stage of potato. Then the climate suitability of potato was researched in different zones in the Northeastern Inner Mongolia, prediction models of potato growth stages were established based on the climate suitability. The results showed that, the average error was within 2 days between simulation number and the actual number of 3 climate areas in the East, the West and the mountain land of the Daxing’an Mountains, average error was within 2 days in each development period. The forecast test results showed that, the forecast error of each developmental stage was within 1 day in each region, except the mountain land of the Daxing’an Mountains, in which the forecasting error was 3.4 days. Therefore, the forecasting models are effective and can contribute to prediction of potato development in the area.