平凉市小麦条锈病越冬菌源分布区域勘定及主要影响因子研究

通过多年调查研究, 明确了甘肃省平凉市小麦条锈病菌越冬区域为海拔1 980 m以下的小麦种植区, 主要越冬区域在海拔1 750 m以下; 在对该市27年小麦条锈病历史资料系统分析的基础上, 研究筛选出了当年秋苗发病程度、冬季11月-翌年2月降水总量、翌年1月份平均气温、翌年1月31日前积雪日数等小麦条锈病越冬菌量的主要影响因子, 采用多元逐步回归方法组建了当地小麦条锈病越冬菌量预测模型, 回测准确率为72%, 对开展其综合治理有积极的指导作用。

Distribution area of overwintering pathogen source of wheat stripe rust and its main affecting factors in Pingliang

Through years of investigation, we confirmed that overwintering area of wheat stripe rust in Pingliang City was located in the wheat planting regions under altitude of 1 980 m and its main overwintering area distributed at altitude below 1 750 m. Based on comprehensive analysis of historical data for wheat stripe rust during 27 years, the main factors affecting the amount of overwintering pathogen were selected, including the occurrence degree on autumn seedlings of the year, total precipitation from November to February in winter, average temperature in January next year and days of snow covering before January 31 next year. Using multiple stepwise regression method, a prediction model for the local overwintering pathogens were set up, with back measurement accuracy of 72%.