基于水量供需平衡的河北省张家口市崇礼区水资源承载力分析

[目的]对农业需水量进行了情景预测,旨在为河北省张家口市崇礼区冬奥会(2022年举办)以及未来水资源合理利用以及可持续发展提供基础。[方法]基于水资源供需关系分析了2005—2016年水资源承载力并预测了不同规划年(2022年、2035年)水资源承载力。[结果] 2005—2016年水资源平衡指数(IWSD)从0.54下降至0.06,2016年水资源承载能力已趋于临界状态;当保证率P=25%时,2022,2035年IWSD分别为0.27,0.25,水资源承载盈余,当P=50%,75%,水资源承载力均超载,尤其当P=75%时,IWSD分别为-0.77,-0.81,水资源严重超载;通过调整灌溉面积以及需水定额,P=25%,50%时,IWSD0,P=75%时不同规划年缺水量减少了22.68%,36.31%。[结论]未来崇礼区可通过调整灌溉面积、灌溉需水定额,减少地下水开采量,提高地表水利用率来提高水资源承载力。

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Chongli District, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province Based on Supply-Demand Balance of Water Resources

[Objective] Forecasting agricultural water demands aims to provide a basis for holding the 2022 Winter Olympic Games, while helping with a reasonable utilization of future water resources and sustainable development in Chongli District, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province.[Methods] Based on the relationship between water supply and demand, this study evaluated the water resources carrying capacity from 2005 to 2016 and forecasted the water resources carrying capacity for 2022 and 2035.[Results] The index of water supply and demand (IWSD) decreased from 0.54 in 2005 to 0.06 in 2016. Water resources carrying capacity in 2016 tended to be in a critical state. When the guaranteed rate equaled to 25%, IWSD indexes were equal to 0.27 and 0.25 respectively in 2022 and 2035, which indicated the water resources had an adequate carrying capacity. When the guaranteed rate equaled to 50% or 75%, the water resources carrying capacity was overloaded, particularly with the guaranteed rate equaled to 75%, IWSD indexes were -0.77 and -0.81, respectively, in different years. When adjusting the local planting industry and irrigation water quota, the guaranteed rate equaled to 25% and 50%, IWSD >0. The amounts of shortage water in different years declined by 22.68% and 36.31%, respectively, with guaranteed rate equal to 75%.[Conclusion] To address overloading water resources adjusting the agricultural irrigation area, decreasing irrigation water quotas, and increasing surface water use, as well as decreasing groundwater exploitation will help maintain an adequate carrying capacity.