昆虫种群发育数量动态的模拟模型及其应用

在评述国内外近十几年来昆虫种群发育模拟模型研究的基础上，充分考虑了不同昆虫的种群发育特点，建立了以种群发育温度为驱动变量，以昆虫种群生命表资料为基础数据的具有发育阶段和年龄结构的通用发育模型。模型可用于模拟具有不同虫态数及各虫态没年龄烽的种群发育进程。在与天气耦联的情况下，可用于昆虫种群发生动态的预测和不同防治策略的风险分析，对玉变螟生命表资料的模拟结果表明，模型具有良好的模拟性能。

ON THE ESTABLISHMENT AND APPLICATION OF A SIMULATION MODEL FOR INSECT POPULATION DEVELOPMENT

: Based on the comparisons of a series of simulation models related to insect population development published in recent years in the world and considerations fo-cussed on the characteristics of population development in different insects, a new simulation model universally appropriate to insect population development, getting to various developmental stages and age structures, was established by using population development temperature as the driving variable and results from insect life tables as the basic data. This model can be use to simulate the developmental course of population having different stages and ages. In case of combining with weather model,this model can also be use to predict insect population dynamics and carry out risk analysis of different control tactics. The simulation results of life table data of Asian corn borer showed that this model possesses good simulation capability.