东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度灰色预测研究

茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是东南太平洋头足类中个体最大、资源最丰富的种类之一，经济价值高，已成为我国远洋渔业的重要组成部分。准确的资源丰度预测有利于资源的合理开发和利用。本研究基于2003~2015年东南太平洋茎柔鱼生产统计数据以及其产卵场环境、气候因子资料，使用相关性分析和灰色系统方法，建立东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度的预报模型。结果显示，2月产卵场海表面温度(Sea surface temperature, SST)、3月产卵场叶绿素a浓度(Chl a)、12月太平洋年代气候震荡(Pacific decadal oscillation, PDO)和10月厄尔尼诺指数(Oceanic Nino index, ONI)与茎柔鱼资源丰度具有较好的相关性。比较多种预报模型发现，基于2月SST、12月PDO和10月ONI的GM(1, 4)模型有较好的预测效果，其准确率达到85%以上，可用于东南太平洋茎柔鱼资源丰度的预测。

Prediction of Abundance Index of the Humboldt Squid (Dosidicus gigas) in the Southeast Pacific Ocean Based on a Grey System-Based Model

The Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) is one of the most abundant fisheries resource in the Southeast Pacific Ocean. It has become an important component of China''s offshore fisheries due to its high economic value. Accurate abundance index prediction is important to the rational development and utilization of D. gigas. In this study, the correlation analysis and grey system method were used to establish a model (GM) for predicting the abundance of squid in the southeastern Pacific based on fishery data as well as environmental and climatic factors, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), and Chlorophyll concentration a (Chl a). The results showed that the SST of the spawning ground in February, the Chl a of the spawning ground in March, the PDO in December, and the ONI in October had significant correlations with the abundance of squid. The GM (1, 4) model with SST, PDO, and ONI as independent variables had the highest accuracy (> 85%), which could be used to accurately predict the abundance of D. gigas in the Southeast Pacific.