河南省耕地动态变化及驱动力研究

根据50余年来的长序列统计资料,对河南省耕地动态变化进行了研究,结果表明:1949~2003年河南省耕地总量大致经历了2个增长期和1个减少期,人均耕地基本上呈逐年减少趋势;借助GIS分析了河南省耕地的空间变化规律,东部和中西部具有明显的区域差异,位于东部地区的区域相对变化率较大,中西部区域相对变化率较小。并通过主成分分析,揭示出人口增长、经济发展和农业科技进步是影响耕地变化的三大驱动因素。研究结果和分析结论对河南省农业可持续发展具有重要意义。

Studies on Changes and the Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Henan Province

The changes of the cultivated land in Henan province was studied based upon the analysis of statistical data in the last 50 years.It was found that the cultivated land area had experienced two in-creasing phases and one decreasing phase in Henan from 1949 to 2003.The per capita cultivated land has a decreasing trend year after year basically.Using the GIS software to analyze the spatial changes rule of cultivated land it was found that there was significant regional difference between the east and midwest.That is,the relative change index of the cultivated land in eastern areas is higher,but that of the midwest is lower.According to the principle component analysis,the 3 driving forces affecting arable land changes were population increasing,economy developing and progress of science and tech-nology in agriculture.Furthermore,nature disaster and policy have the bigger influence on the change of the total cultivated land.