| 岷江上游径流枯水年时间序列的分形研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭立,苏春江,徐云,满正闯.岷江上游径流枯水年时间序列的分形研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(4):440-442. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭立 苏春江 徐云 满正闯 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都610041 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划（973）项目（2003CB415201-5）. |
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| 摘 要： | 分形是研究复杂自然现象的有力工具之一.本文在分形概念基础上介绍了分形在水文时间序列中的应用。利用多年径流的丰枯时间序列的分形特征,根据岷江上游多年径流丰枯变化的实测资料,对多年径流的丰枯变化长期趋势进行了预测分析,并给出了预测未来短期枯水/丰水年出现年份的方法。结果表明,利用R/S方法预测丰枯变化趋势预测是一条较为有效的途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 分形 R/S分析 时间序列 岷江上游 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-3409（2007）04-0440-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-11-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-08 |
The Fractal Analysis of Low Runoff Time Serial in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River |
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| PENG Li,SU Chun-jiang , XU Yun , MAN Zheng-chuang.The Fractal Analysis of Low Runoff Time Serial in the Upper Reaches of Minjiang River[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007,14(4):440-442. |
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| Authors: | PENG Li SU Chun-jiang XU Yun MAN Zheng-chuang |
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| Institution: | 1. Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | Fractal is one of the powerful tools to study complicated natural phenomena. This paper introduce the application of fractal theory in the hydrological time serial at the basis of the fractal concept. According to the measured data of wet and low runoff time serial in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, the change tendency of wet and low runoff is forecasted by means of the principle and method of R/S analysis. The experimental results show that the method has practical significance. |
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