基于风险分析的龙潭水库除险加固方案优化技术研究

现如今,在进行病险水库治理过程中,重点突出了治理效果,对于常住居民生活、当地环境、社会环境等都没有涉及,因此研究基于风险分析的除险加固优化技术是非常必要的.本文结合中国病险水库治理现状,以龙潭水库病险加固为例,构建了事件树法决策模型,对龙潭水库修筑前后产生的风险进行了评估,评选出了风险小、投资少、花费少的修筑方案,提出了基于风险分析的病险水库除险加固方案设计方法,对今后病险水库修筑具有理论指导意义.

Technology research based on risk analysis of Longtan Reservoirreinforcement plan optimization

Currently, governance effect is mainly emphasized in the process of diseased reservoir management.It is not related to permanent resident life, local environment, social environment, etc.Therefore, it is very necessary to study reinforcement optimization technology based on risk analysis.Governance status of diseased reservoirs in China is combined, and risky reinforcement of Longtan Reservoir is adopted as an example for constructing event tree method decision-making model to evaluate risks produced before and after Longtan Reservoir construction.Construction plans with low risk, investment and spending are selected.Diseased reservoir reinforcement plan design method based on risk analysis is proposed, which has theoritical instruction significance for diseased reservoir construction in the future.