系统动力学模型在吉林省水资源承载力的仿真应用

水资源短缺和水环境污染作为水资源危机的主要内容,在吉林省社会经济发展过程中广泛存在。对此,从人口、经济、生态、水资源和水环境等5个子系统,建立吉林省水资源承载力系统动力学模型,通过设计现状延续型、节约水量型、环境保护型、综合协调型4种情景,模拟2016-2025年吉林省水资源承载力。结果显示:现状延续型在水量和水质两要素均最差,为最劣方案;节水水量型和环境保护型分别在缓解水资源供需压力和改善水环境质量上有所建树,为非劣方案;综合协调型在水量和水质两要素均表现优异,为最优方案;2025年4种方案的水资源承载力排序为综合协调型>环境保护型>节约水量型>现状延续型。

Simulation Application of System Dynamics Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Jilin Province

As a major component of the water crisis,water shortage and water environmental pollution are widespread in the process of social and economic development in Jilin Province.In this regard,from the five subsystems of population,economy,ecology,water resources and water environment,the system dynamic model of water resources carrying capacity system in Jilin Province was established,and the status continuation type,water saving type,environmental protection type and comprehensive coordination type were adopted.The results show that the status continuation type is the worst in both water quantity and water quality,which is the worst solution;water-saving water quantity type and environmental protection type have made achievements in alleviating water supply and demand pressure and improving water environment quality,respectively.The comprehensive coordination type is excellent in both the water quantity and the water quality,and is the optimal solution.In 2025,the water resources carrying capacity of the four types is ranked as comprehensive coordination type>environmental protection type>water saving type>status continuation type.