基于层次分析模型的西宁地区雷电灾害风险区划

分析2008—2017年西宁地区雷电灾害历史数据,2008—2017年闪电定位数据和2017年《西宁市统计年鉴》数据;选取闪电强度、闪电密度、人工雷暴日数、土壤电导率、河网密度、人口密度、GDP密度、生命易损指数、经济易损指数、防护能力指数等10个因子作为西宁地区雷电灾害风险评估指标,结合层次分析法采用致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度以及承灾体脆弱性反映西宁地区雷电灾害风险,实现了西宁地区雷电灾害风险区划。结果表明:雷电灾害高风险区出现于大通县东北部、西北部的宝库乡,湟中县与西宁市交界处由北至南的带状地区;中风险区主要出现于西宁主城区、湟中县大部分乡镇、大通县东北部乡镇;低风险区分布分散,主要出现在湟源县西南部乡镇、大通县中部乡镇。

Risk Zoning of Regional Lightning Disaster in Xining Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Model

Using the lightning disaster data from 2008 to 2017, the lightning data by ADTD from 2008 to 2017 and the economic and population data of 2017 in Xining, the authors selected lightning intensity, lightning density, artificial thunderstorm days, soil conductivity, river network density, population density, GDP density, life vulnerability index, economic vulnerability index and protective capacity index as lighting disaster risk evaluation indexes. The regional lightning risk was reflected by the disaster-causing factors, the exposure of hazard bearing body and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body on the basis of AHP model, and GIS was used to realize lightning risk division in Xining. The results showed that Baoku town in northeast and northwest of Datong County, and the zonal area from north to south at the junction of Huangzhong County and Xining City belonged to the high-risk area of lightning disaster. The main urban areas of Xining, most towns in Huangzhong County and the northeastern towns of Datong County belonged to the medium risk area. The southwestern towns of Huangyuan County and the central towns of Datong County belonged to the low-risk area.