基于改进交叉影响法的木材加工产业园区火险因素研究

【目的】为正确把握木材加工产业园区的消防管控方向,运用改进的交叉影响分析法对木材加工产业园区火险影响因素进行研究,以深入剖析木材加工产业园区火险因素间的交互作用,为木材加工产业园区的科学防火提供模型支撑。【方法】首先从系统论和事故致因角度出发,建立包含人、物、环、管4方面共16个影响因素的木材加工产业园区火险因素体系,进而运用三元模糊法,基于各影响因素间的相互作用关系,构建火险因素的交叉影响关系矩阵,并将马尔科夫稳态预测模型引入交叉影响分析过程中,计算木材加工产业园区中火险因素火灾发生的校正概率,实现对木材加工产业园区火险因素交互作用下的发生概率变化趋势的预测。【结果】通过实例分析可知:消防安全意识、人员工作技能、木材贮存规范性、园区消防安全氛围、消防设施、消防救援力量、消防制度与机构、安全教育与培训、事故应急管理、消防巡查与监管的火灾发生概率呈上升趋势;人员基本素质、设备健康状态、木材贮存数量、园区规模、消防规划合理性的火险发生概率呈下降趋势。【结论】改进的交叉影响分析法可以应用到木材加工产业园区火险因素的预测中,且能够真实地反映因素交叉影响后的发展方向和程度,为木材加工产业园区的安全生产、科学管理及消防风险决策提供理论依据和新思路。

Research on factors influencing fire danger of wood processing industrial parks based on improved cross-impact analysis

【Objective】In order to correctly grasp the direction of fire control in the wood processing industrial park,the improved cross-impact analysis method is used to analysis fire danger factors,which will give new insights into the reciprocal action between fire danger factors,in the meantime provide model support for the scientific fire prevention in wood processing industrial parks.【Method】Firstly,from the perspective of system theory as well as accident cause,a fire danger factors index system of wood processing industry parks was established from personnel,fuel,environment and management perspectives,which contains sixteen fire risk factors.And then applying the three-element fuzzy method,the fire danger factors cross-impact relation matrix model was built on the basis of interaction relationship between influencing factors.In the end,the Markov prediction mode was introduced to calculate the correction probability of fire danger factors in wood processing industrial park,in which way to realize the prediction of the future possibility and development trend on fire danger factors under the various interaction relationships.【Result】It is founded from the practical example analysis that possibilities of fire protection awareness,personnel work ability,wood storage normative,fire danger of infrastructure,fire safety atmosphere,fire control facilities,fire and rescue forces,fire prevention system and organization,safety education and training,fire emergency management,fire patrol and regulation are tending to rise.Meanwhile,possibilities of basic quality of personnel,equipment health condition,quantity of wood storage,scale of wood processing industrial park and rationalization ofconstruction plan for fire protection are tending to decrease.【Conclusion】The improved Cross Impact Analysis method is well applied to wood processing industrial park,which reflects true development direction and degree of fire risk factor and provides theoretical basis for safe production,scientific management and decision-making in wood processing industrial parks.