基于链式结构的深圳市洪涝综合风险评估

依据自然灾害评估理论,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三个方面选取若干指标,引入链式风险结构,构建基于链式结构的城市洪涝综合风险评估模型,结合相关气象、地形地貌、城市排水管网和社会经济数据,运用GIS空间数据分析技术完成不同极端降雨等级下深圳市洪涝综合风险评估。结果表明:①龙岗区东北部以及南部局部区域、坪山新区中部、宝安区北部以及南山区前后海区域为深圳市洪涝综合风险的高值区,随着极端降雨等级的提升,风险高值区逐步扩展至中西部大部分地区、龙岗区以及坪山新区大部分地区、盐田区中部以及大鹏新区中部。②深圳市洪涝综合风险低值区主要位于大鹏新区南部和北部地区。③深圳市洪涝综合风险评估结果与洪涝风险指标的空间分布相对应,印证了本文基于链式结构的城市洪涝综合风险评估模型的有效性与合理性。

A Comprehensive Assessment of Flood and Waterlogging Risk of Shenzhen Based on Chain Structure

In the current study,several indicators are selected from the aspects of the disaster risk,environment and bearing body,and the chain structure is introduced to establish a comprehensive assessment model on urban flood and waterlogging risk,according to the evaluation theory of natural risks.Comprehensive flood risk of Shenzhen under different grades of extreme precipitation are evaluated by combining GIS spatial analysis based on meteorological,topographic and geo-morphological,urban drainage networks and socio-economic data.The results show that:①The northeast and southern parts of Longgang District,the Central Pingshan New Area,the North of Baoan District,and the Qianhouhai of Nanshan District are the high value areas of the comprehensive risk of flood and waterlogging in Shenzhen.With the increase in extreme rainfall grades,the high risk area has gradually expanded to most parts of the central and western regions,Longgang District and most areas of Pingshan New District,the middle part of Yantian District and the middle part of Dapeng New Area.②The low value area of flood comprehensive risk is mainly located in the south and north of Dapeng New Area.③The results of flood comprehensive risk assessment in Shenzhen City corresponds to the spatial distributions of flood risk indexes,which confirmes the validity and rationality of the comprehensive risk assessment of urban flood and waterlogging based on chain structure.