中国省际间农畜产品虚拟水流动合理性评价与调控研究

为探究区域虚拟水流动适宜性与流动现状之间的匹配度, 提高我国水资源配置效率, 优化农畜产品生产空间布局, 从水资源、土地资源、农业发展基础、社会经济发展水平和生态环境5个方面构建了中国各省农畜产品虚拟水资源流动适宜性评价指标体系, 运用综合加权求和方法, 计算农畜产品虚拟水资源流动适宜性。并在此基础上, 结合农畜产品虚拟水流动现状, 提出农畜产品虚拟水流动合理性的概念, 构建定量评价模型, 计算中国省际间农畜产品虚拟水资源流动合理性指数。结果表明: 农畜产品虚拟水适宜输出地较适宜输入地多, 且多位于内陆, 西藏、黑龙江、内蒙古农畜产品虚拟水输出适宜性指数大, 北京、天津、上海农畜产品虚拟水输入适宜性指数位居前三; 影响各省农畜产品虚拟水流动适宜性指数大小的原因各异; 全国各省农畜产品虚拟水流动合理性整体水平不高, 合理性指数小于1的仅有14个省, 虚拟水流动较合理的有上海、山西、吉林等省, 其合理性指数分别为0.16、0.21、0.23, 最不合理的为贵州, 其合理性指数高达4.84, 其次是河南、宁夏, 其合理性指数分别为4.18、4.04; 合理性的分布没有明显地域规律, 不同程度的合理性杂乱分布, 没有明显的南北分异或东西分异。最后, 根据各省农畜产品虚拟水流动适宜性以及流动现状, 提出农畜产品虚拟水流动调整策略, 调整类型大致分为控制输出型、鼓励输出型、控制输入型、鼓励输入型、转换输入型和转换输出型6种。宁夏、内蒙古、新疆、黑龙江、河南和吉林属于控制输出型, 西藏、青海、安徽应增加其虚拟水输出量, 福建、浙江、重庆、广州应减少其虚拟水输入量。上海、北京、天津、山西、江苏和陕西6省市农畜产品虚拟水输入现状水平低于其输入适宜性水平, 应该增加其虚拟水输入量。

Rationality and regulation of provincial virtual water flow for agricultural and livestock products in China

The study of virtual water is critical for the security of water resources and livestock products. To explore regional virtual water flow compatibility, improve allocation of water resources in China and optimize livestock product spatial layout, we built a rationality index system to assess the suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in China. The assessment system involved water resources, land resources, basis for agricultural development, social economic development and ecological environment. The system was then used to determine the suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in a comprehensive weight summation analysis. Based on present conditions of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products, we put forward the concept of rationality of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products and built a quantitative evaluation model for determining rationality index of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products across the provinces in China. The results showed that provinces suitable for virtual water output exceeded that suitable for virtual water input in agricultural and livestock products. Most provinces suitable for virtual water output were the inland provinces of China. In Tibet Autonomous Region, Heilongjiang Province, and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, agricultural and livestock products suitability index of virtual water output was high. The top three suitability indexes of virtual water output in agricultural and livestock products were for Beijing City, Tianjin City and Shanghai City. The factors that affected the suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products varied vastly among provinces. Although the total rationality index of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in the provinces in China was not high, only 14 provinces had rationality index lower than 1. The rationality indexes for Shanghai City (0.16), Shanxi Province (0.21) and Jilin Province (0.23) were suitable in terms of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products. Guizhou Province was most irrational with an index value of 4.84. The next most irrational zones were Henan Province (4.18) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (4.04). There was no obvious regional distribution pattern of rationality index. Based on the current state and suitability of virtual water flow in agricultural and livestock products in the provinces, six classes of adjustments were recommended. The classes of adjustments included controlling output, encouraging output, controlling input, encouraging input, converting to input and converting to output. Six provinces belonged to controlling output - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Helongjiang Province, Henan Province and Jilin Province. While Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province and Anhui Province needed to increase virtual water output, Fujian Province, Zhejiang Province, Chongqing City and Guangzhou Province needed to reduce it. The present level of virtual water input was lower than that of virtual water input suitability in six provinces - Beijing City, Shanghai City, Tianjin City, Shanxi Province, Jiangsu Province and Shaanxi Province. It therefore was suggested that all relevant stakeholders put more efforts in increasing virtual water input in these cities.