三门峡市烤烟种植气候适宜性因子变化特征分析

对影响三门峡市烤烟种植适宜性的主要气候因子进行变化特征分析,以便更加有效地利用气候资源为烤烟生产提供气象服务。采用气候倾向率、趋势系数、变异系数,R/S分析等方法分析了三门峡烤烟种植气候适宜性因子的变化特征和未来变化趋势。结果表明：1960—2018年三门峡烤烟大田期年平均日照时数为824.4 h,并以36.4 h/10 a的速率显著减少;旺长期年平均降水量120.2 mm,并以2.7 mm/10年的速率减少,降水量波动性呈逐年显著性增大;成熟期年平均气温23.1℃,并以0.03℃/10 a的速率缓慢上升。三个气候影响因子Hurst指数分别为0.839、0.611、0.641。各气候适宜性因子多年平均值均在量化指标最优范围内,适合优质烤烟的种植,其未来变化趋势与过去保持一致,以日照时数的变化趋势持续性最强。

Variation Characteristics of Climate Suitability Factors for Flue-cured Tobacco Cultivation in Sanmenxia City

The variation characteristics of main climate suitability factors affecting the flue-cured tobacco planting in Sanmenxia were analyzed in order to provide meteorological services for tobacco production by using climate resources more effectively. Methods of climate inclination rate, trend coefficient, coefficient of variation and R/S analysis were used to analyze the variation characteristics and future trend of climatic suitability factors for flue-cured tobacco cultivation in Sanmenxia. The results showed that the annual average sunshine duration of flue-cured tobacco field period in Sanmenxia was 824.4 h and decreased significantly at a rate of 36.4 h/10 a from 1960 to 2018; the average annual precipitation in the flourishing period was 120.2 mm and decreased at a rate of 2.7 mm/10 a, and the fluctuation of precipitation increased significantly from year to year; the annual average temperature of mature period was 23.1℃ and increased slowly at a rate of 0.03℃/10 a. The Hurst index of the three climate impact factors was 0.839, 0.611 and 0.641, respectively. The multi-year average of each climate suitability factor was within the optimal range of quantitative index, suitable for the cultivation of high-quality tobacco, and its future trend of change is consistent with the past, with the variation trend of sunshine hours being the strongest.