甘肃省天水市耕地变化分析与预测

利用天水市1996~2002年土地变更数据对天水市耕地变化特征和变化趋势进行了研究,结果表明:天水市耕地面积正在逐年减少,但减少的速率具有降低的趋势,减少的过程具有明显的阶段性。对耕地面积变化的总趋势预测表明,未来耕地面积仍然具有逐渐减少的特征,但减少的速度会相对变慢且比较平稳;耕地减少的数量不能满足城市发展对土地的需求。天水市未来发展的定位与规模、土地地貌特征和开发利用历史与程度、耕地减少速度与居民点及工矿用地增加速度之间的矛盾是控制耕地减少速度的约束条件。

Analysis and forecast about cultivated land change in Tianshui of Gansu province

Changing characteristics and trend of cultivated land in Tianshui of Gansu province were studie based on modificatory data of land use from 1996 to 2002,the results show that the area of cultivated land in Tianshui takes on the characteristic of decreasing yearly,however,the decreasing rate reduces;the decreasing period of cultivated land in Tianshui could be divided into 3 stages according to the decreasing rate of cultivated land.Forecasting of cultivated land changing shows that cultivated land area would remain the trend of decreasing yearly in the future;moreover,the decreasing rate of cultivated land would become slower and slower;the decreasing amount of cultivated land could not match with the land needs for city developing.The site and scope of city developing in the future,landform,land exploiting history,intensity of landuse,conflict between decreasing of cultivated land and increasing of constructive land are restrictive factors in controlling decreasing of cultivated land.