农户最低收购价预期与种植结构调整——来自农业生产性投资的调节检验

使用2018年湘、赣、苏三省水稻主产区农户调查数据,研究农户最低收购价预期对种植结构调整的作用机制及农业生产性投资的调节效应。实证结果显示,农户预期最低收购价下降对种植结构变化、调模式行为有显著正向影响,且预期降幅超线对调模式行为的影响更显著,表明最低收购价政策变化传递出较明显的种植结构调整效应。农户预期最低收购价下降、预期降幅超线和专用型设备投资对调面积行为的影响显著为负,且专用型设备投资与预期降幅超线交互项对调面积行为的负向作用更显著。这种负向调节效应源于农户专用型设备投资收益回报机制对水稻种植规模的“锚定”效应,使得专用型设备投资对农户面积减少行为有较大的延迟作用。未来种植结构调整应引导低端农产品向优质、品牌化转型,稳定农户生产性投资收益回报率预期,探索分类引导不同规模农户种植结构调整的政策。

Farmers' Expectation of Minimum Purchase Price and the Adjustment of Planting Structure: A Regulatory Effect Test from Agricultural Productive Investment

Using data from the 2018 survey of farmers in the main rice-producing areas of Hunan,Jiangxi, and Jiangsu provinces, this paper studies the role of farmers'' expectations of minimum purchase price (MPP) in the adjustment of planting structure and its moderating effects on agricultural productive investment. The empirical results show that farmers'' expectation of MPP had significant positive effect on the planting structure change and the adjustment mode, and the expected decline beyond the line has a more significant impact on the adjustment mode, which indicates that the change of MPP policy would exert a relatively obvious effect on planting structure adjustment. The farmers'' expectation of MPP, the expected decline beyond the line and the special equipment investment have significantly negative effects on the reducing of planting area, and the interaction between the special equipment investment and the expected decline beyond the line has a more significant negative effect on the reducing of planting area. This negative adjustment effect stems from the anchor effect of the return mechanism of special equipment investment on planting scale, which makes a greater delay effect of the special equipment investment on the reduction of planting area. Given the current target of China''s planting structure adjustment, we should strengthen the guidance of the transformation from low-end produce to high-quality and branded agricultural products in the future, stabilize the expected rate of return for farmers'' productive investment, and explore policies to guide the planting structure adjustment according to the scale of the rural household.