| 杨树黑斑病测报模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴佳徽,李铮,周在豹,薛洋,陶万强,田呈明. 杨树黑斑病测报模型的研究[J]. 中国森林病虫, 2012, 31(1): 5-8 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴佳徽 李铮 周在豹 薛洋 陶万强 田呈明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京林业大学省部共建森林培育与保护教育部重点实验室,北京,100083
2. 北京市园林绿化局林业保护站,北京,100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 在北京郊区黑杨林地内设置固定样地,进行杨树黑斑病Marssonina brunnea病原菌孢子捕捉和病情调查。运用数量化理论I系统分析了病情指数与气象因子之间的关系,结果表明:当平均气温20～28℃、平均相对湿度80%以上、降雨量为60 mm以上时,杨树黑斑病的病情发展迅速。同时建立了杨树黑斑病的数量化测报模型:^yi=-5.236 1x(1,1)+7.388 4x(1,2)-3.045 7x(1,3)-6.231 5x(2,1)-4.540 9x(2,2)+6.261 8x(2,3)+20.496 3x(2,4)+1.146 6x(3,1)+3.613 4x(3,2)+7.025 7x(3,3)+19.680 2x(3,4)。对测报模型检验的预测精度在88.49%～96.43%之间。
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| 关 键 词： | 杨树黑斑病 病情指数 测报模型 |
Forecast model of poplar black spot caused by Marssonina brunnea |
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| Affiliation: | WU Jiahui,et al.(Key Laboratory for Silviculture and Forest Conservation,Ministry of Education,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China) |
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| Abstract: | The spore trap and investigation of poplar black spot disease was conducted in the fixed sampling plots in the Populus simonii×P.nigra nursery in Beijing and the relationship between the disease index and the meteorological factors was analyzed with quantitative theory I.The result showed when the mean temperature was 20-28℃,the mean relative humidity wa above 80% and the rainfall was above 60 mm,poplar black spot disease would occur seriously.The quantitative theory forecast model[i=-5.2361x(1,1)+7.3884x(1,2)-3.0457x(1,3)-6.2315x(2,1)-4.5409x(2,2)+6.2618x(2,3)+20.4963x(2,4)+1.1466x(3,1)+3.6134x(3,2)+7.0257x(3,3)+19.6802x(3,4)] was established to predict the occurrence of this disease.The reliability of the forecast model was 88.49%-96.43%. |
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| Keywords: | poplar black spot disease index forecast model |
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