| 基于马尔可夫模型的粮食产量丰歉状态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘继龙,张振华.基于马尔可夫模型的粮食产量丰歉状态预测[J].安徽农业科学,2006,34(9):2003-2004. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘继龙 张振华 |
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| 作者单位： | 鲁东大学地理与资源管理学院,山东,烟台,264025 |
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| 基金项目： | 烟台师范学院重点基金项目(043201)，人才引进基金(000444)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于粮食产量序列存在不确定性、不精确性的特点,应用有序聚类的方法建立粮食产量丰歉状态的分级标准,并根据烟台市1949~1997年粮食产量对1998和1999年的粮食产量进行了预测。结果表明,根据有序聚类的原理确定粮食产量的状态,可使确定的分级标准更加合理;1998和1999年预测结果为丰年的发生概率为0.786和0.838,与实际情况相符,预测效果比较明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 马尔可夫 粮食产量 预测 有序聚类 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2006）09-2003-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-21 |
Prediction of Grain Yield Based on the Markov Model |
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| LIU Ji-long et al.Prediction of Grain Yield Based on the Markov Model[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2006,34(9):2003-2004. |
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| Authors: | LIU Ji-long |
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| Institution: | Geography and Resource Management Department of Ludong University, Yantai, Shandong 264025 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the method of sequential cluster was applied to set up the classification standard of grain yield prediction based on the uncertainty and imprecise characteristics in the grain yield sequence,and the grain yields of 1998 and 1999 were predicted in Yantai.The results showed that the classification standard was fixed with the sequential cluster principle.The probabilities that the grain yield was abundant were 0.786 and 0.838 respectively.The prediction was in accord with the practice and its effects of prediction were more obvious. |
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| Keywords: | Markov model Grain yield Prediction Sequential cluster |
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