A model of the spring migration into the North Sea by Calanus finmarchicus overwintering off the Scottish continental shelf

A particle tracking model was used to investigate the annual spring invasion of the North Sea by Calanus finmarchicus copepodites which overwinter in deep water off the Scottish continental shelf. Flow fields generated by a hydrodynamic model (HDM) were used to simulate the advection of zero drag particles representing the copepods. Particles were released simultaneously from a regular lattice of start positions at a given depth ( D ₁), and ascended at a fixed rate ( dD/dt ) until they reached a final depth ( D ₂) in the surface layers. The proportion of particles reaching target areas in the northern North Sea was relatively insensitive to a moderate degree of variation (±20%) around chosen default values of the vertical migration parameters ( D ₁, D ₂ and dD/dt ), derived from field data. The inclusion of horizontal diffusion velocities and diel vertical migration in surface layers did not significantly affect the results. Sensitivity to wind direction was investigated by applying flow fields from HDM runs with different wind forcing scenarios. For the default vertical migration parameters, only north-westerly winds resulted in particles entering the North Sea from release locations north of the Iceland–Scotland Ridge, where dense aggregations of overwintering copepods were encountered during field surveys. The particle tracking model predicted that the major routes for the spring Calanus invasion into the North Sea were the East of Shetland Atlantic Inflow and the Norwegian Trench Atlantic Inflow, which agreed with seasonal trends observed in Continuous Plankton Recorder data. Overall, despite its relative simplicity, particle tracking was confirmed as a robust tool to explore the causal mechanisms behind the annual invasion of the North Sea by C. finmarchicus emerging from diapause in the deep waters off the Scottish continental shelf.