江西省县域农业碳排放时空格局及影响因素分析

农业生产是碳排放的主要来源之一，在碳达峰碳中和的时代背景下，厘清区域农业碳排放现状并分析其时空变化和影响因素具有重要意义。江西省是农业大省，近几十年来农业的快速发展伴随着农业碳排放量的升高。因此基于本区域水稻种植、农资投入、土壤利用及畜禽养殖4类主要碳源，构建农业碳排放测算体系，评估2000-2020年农业碳排放量，分析县域农业碳排放空间格局及其驱动机制。结果表明：1）江西省农业碳排放量总量范围在1 098.32万～1 471.94万t；种植业碳排放强度整体呈下降趋势，范围在2.50～3.87 t/万元，畜牧业碳排放强度整体亦呈下降趋势，范围在0.76～2.03 t/万元；各碳源碳排放总量和其占农业碳排放总量的比例大小依次为：水稻种植（806.72万t,61.15%）、畜禽养殖（243.57万t,18.57%）、农资投入（237.39万t,18.02%）、农田土壤利用（29.60万t,2.26%）;2）江西省县域农业碳排放量空间特征明显，高碳排放区均集中于鄱阳湖平原地区以及吉泰盆地；农业碳排放强度空间分布由相对离散到集中在赣北地区；整体上江西省碳排放总量的重心向北移动；3）农业碳排放效...

Spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions at the county level in Jiangxi Province of China

Agricultural carbon emissions are one of the major sources of carbon emissions, in the era of peak carbon and carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is of great significance to clarify the status quo of agricultural carbon emissions and analyze spatial-temporal changes and influencing factors. As we know, Jiangxi Province is a big agricultural Province, which has attracted tremendous research interest. In recent years, the rapid development of agriculture in Jiangxi province is accompanied by the continuous increase in agricultural carbon emissions. Herein, based on the four major carbon sources in Jiangxi Province, including paddy field planting, agricultural investment inputs, soil plowing and livestock and poultry farming, the agricultural carbon emission measurement system of Jiangxi Province was established to calculate the agricultural carbon emission in 81 counties of Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020. The spatial pattern of agricultural carbon emissions was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation and center of gravity transfer at county level and the relevant influence factors in Jiangxi Province was analyzed by logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The results could be summarized as follows: 1) The agricultural carbon emission in Jiangxi Province ranges from 10.98 million tons to 14.72 million tons. On the whole, the agricultural carbon emission in Jiangxi Province has an obvious increasing trend, and its carbon emission intensity has an overall decreasing trend. The carbon emission intensity of planting industry showed a decreasing trend, ranging from 2.50 tons per ten thousand yuan to 3.87 tons per ten thousand yuan, and the carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry showed a decreasing trend, ranging from 0.76 tons per ten thousand yuan to 2.03 tons per ten thousand yuan. Particularly, the total carbon emissions of each carbon source and its proportion in total agricultural carbon emissions presented the following tendency: paddy field planting (8.10 million tons, 61.15%) > livestock and poultry (2.43 million tons, 18.57%) > agricultural investment inputs (2.38 million tons, 18.02%) > soil plowing (0.27 million tons, 2.26%); 2) The spatial characteristic of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province was apparent. For example, the high carbon emission areas were concentrated in the Poyang Plain and the Jitai Basin, whilst spatial distribution of agricultural carbon emission intensity from relative dispersion to concentration in The Northern Jiangxi Province, the carbon emission intensity in The Southern Jiangxi Province is relatively low. The center of gravity of total carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province moves northward, the carbon emission in The Northern Jiangxi Province is higher than that in The Southern Jiangxi Province. 3) Agricultural production efficiency improvement was the most important factor to restrain the sustained growth of the agricultural carbon emissions. Each factor on agricultural carbon emission reduction and its proportion in the total agricultural carbon emission reduction displayed the following tendency: agricultural production efficiency (18.28 million tons, 56.57%)> regional industrial structure (12.65 million tons, 39.15%) > rural population size (0.86 million tons, 2.66%) > agricultural industrial structure (0.52 million tons, 1.62%).Overall, the order of absolute value of agricultural carbon emission reduction by each factor is: The North Jiangxi Province > The Middle Jiangxi Province >The South Jiangxi Province. The present work could light on a scientific strategy for the estimation of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangxi Province and even other major grain producing areas in China.