海南岛农业台风灾害风险评估与可持续发展对策

海南岛是中国台风频发地区之一，开展海南岛农业台风灾害风险评估研究，可为海南岛优化农业种植布局和加强农业防灾减灾提供技术支撑。该研究基于自然灾害系统理论和方法，结合海南岛气象、自然地理与社会经济等要素，综合考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性、承灾体脆弱性，研究构建了海南岛农业台风灾害风险评估方法与指标体系，并基于2001－2020年历年海南岛台风发生数据进行了海南岛农业台风灾害风险评估，在此基础上提出了农业台风灾害防灾减灾与可持续发展对策。结果表明，海南岛农业台风灾害风险指数处于0.40～0.80之间，平均0.61，整体上呈现出北部及沿海地区的灾害风险高于中部山区的趋势；致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性在全岛北部和沿海地区指数较高，承灾体脆弱性在琼海、陵水和三亚等市县指数较高。同时提出了3种农业台风防灾减灾与可持续发展对策，包括调整农业种植布局、提升风险监测预警能力和加强农业政策保险投入等。海南岛各市县农业台风灾害风险的差异以及相应的对策，可支撑相关部门为不同灾害风险程度区域建立防灾方法提供指导依据。

Risk assessment and sustainable development countermeasures of agricultural typhoon disaster for Hainan Island of China

Hainan Island is one of the areas with frequent typhoons in China. The research on risk assessment agricultural typhoon disaster risk in Hainan Island can provide technical support for optimizing the layout of agricultural planting and strengthening agricultural disaster prevention and reduction. Supported by the theory and method of natural disaster system, this research has combined the rainfall, wind speed, typhoon occurrence time, digital elevation model data, rivers and watersheds, ratio vegetation index, agricultural population, agricultural output value, cultivated land area, land area and other factors during the occurrence of typhoons in Hainan Island for many years. Considering the risk of disaster-causing factors, the exposure of hazard-formative environments and the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, this research has constructed the assessment index system of agricultural typhoon disaster in Hainan Island involving 8 indicators, including maximum wind speed accumulation, rainfall accumulation, influence index of terrain factor, river network density, vegetation exposure, agricultural population density, output value per unit area of agricultural land and the proportion of cultivated land in land area, and has illustrated the risk comprehensive assessment model of agricultural typhoon disaster. Based on the analytic hierarchy process method, retained 15 experienced experts engaged in meteorology, agriculture, hydrology and geography to give the score according relative importance of each index. Then the weight is calculated by matrix judgment and consistency, and the contribution degree of 8 indexes for each Criteria layer and index layer is obtained. Combined with the typhoon occurrence data of Hainan Island over the years from 2001 to 2020, this paper has evaluated and analyzed the agricultural typhoon disaster risk of Hainan Island, and divided the agricultural typhoon disaster risk of cities and counties into five levels: level I, level II, level III, level IV and level V. The results showed that: the risk of agricultural typhoon disaster in Hainan Island is high, and the risk index is between 0.40 and 0.80, with an average of 0.61. The area of agricultural typhoon disaster risk level III and above accounts for 74.8%. The overall difference is obvious, showing that the risk of typhoon disaster in the northern and coastal areas of Hainan Island is much higher than that in the central mountainous area. Among them, Qionghai and Haikou have the highest risk, with the disaster risk integrated index of 0.712 and 0.689 respectively. Baoting, Baisha, Wuzhishan and Qiongzhong have the lowest disaster risk, and the integrated index of disaster risk are all lower than 0.540. The risk of disaster-causing factors and the exposure of hazard-formative environment for agricultural typhoon in Hainan Island are at a high level in northern areas such as Haikou, Wenchang, Ding''an, Chengmai, coastal areas such as Qionghai and Danzhou, and at a low level in central areas such as Baisha, Qiongzhong and Wuzhishan. The vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies is at a high level in Qionghai, Lingshui and Sanya, and at a low level in Baisha and Qiongzhong. This paper has proposed three countermeasures for agricultural typhoon disaster prevention and reduction and sustainable development, including adjusting the layout of agricultural planting, improving risk monitoring and early warning capability, and strengthening investment in agricultural policy insurance, according to the typhoon characteristics of Hainan Island and the risk distribution of agricultural typhoon disasters. The specific measures include giving priority to planting typhoon-resistant crops and winter melon and vegetable in Qiongdong region, establishing an intelligent monitoring and perception network using space-sky-terrestrial integration technology for agricultural typhoon disaster risk in remote mountainous areas, introducing new remote sensing technology in areas with developed agricultural activities to innovate the agricultural insurance underwriting and claim settlement mode, etc. The risk level distribution of agricultural typhoon disasters in cities and counties of Hainan Island and the corresponding countermeasures can support relevant departments to establish disaster prevention methods and emergency plans for regions with different disaster risk levels.