呼伦贝尔市植物生长季土壤水分动态模拟研究

采用统计回归方法，利用不同土壤类型的3个农牧业气象观测站1988～2006年的气象和土壤水分观测资料，选取前一旬气温、降水、蒸发量和土壤水分四个因子，建立了呼伦贝尔市5月上旬～8月下旬0～40cm土壤水分动态预测模型，68.8%的方程通过了显著性检验；拟合相对误差小于±10%的为77.8%，小于±15%的为84.3%；利用实测资料对该模型进行验证表明，模型平均相对误差在20%左右，可用于预测呼伦贝尔市植物生长季各旬0～40cm各层土壤水分的动态变化。

The Study on Dynamic Dimulation of Soil Moisture During Plant Growing Season in Hulunbeier City

With statistical regression methods, the use of meteorological and soil moisture data of different soil types in the three agricultural meteorological stations from 1988 to 2006, selecting four factors 10 days ago :temperature, precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture , the 0 ~ 40cm soil moisture dynamic forecasting models are established from May first ten days to the late ten days of Auguste of Hulunbeier city, 68.8% of the equation through a test of significance; The fitting relative error is less than ± 10% to 77.8%, less than ± 15% for 84.3% ; Using of the measured data to verify ,the model shows that an average error is about 20%, can be used to predict the 0 ~ 40cm soil moisture dynamic during plant growing season at all levels in Hulunbeier city.