Analysis of Drought Characteristics and Short-term Prediction in Ji’an Area during 1960―2018北大核心CSCD

【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to further explore the drought condition of Ji’an area in terms of spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, evolution tendency and future situation of drought. 【Method】The result of this paper was concluded based on the different time scale SPI values of precipitation during 1960―2018 among the 13 districts and counties of Ji’an city. The inverse distance weight method was adopted to interpolate the drought frequency. And the spatial distribution characteristics of annual and seasonal drought were analyzed in the research. Moreover, the trends, occurrence timing characteristics, impact range and severity of drought were analyzed by Linear regression method, Mann-Kendall trend test, drought station sub-ratio and run of theory; Precipitation status was also predicted by weighted Markov Model. 【Result】The frequency and range of drought in Ji’an area decreased on the annual scale in terms of the light drought and extreme drought conditions. Droughts in Autumn and winter were more severe because the occurrence frequency was about 30%. However, drought in summer varied greatly on regional distribution. Overall, the spring drought had a tendency to increase in many places; while the summer drought was weakening. The whole basin drought events tended to occur intensively in a short period of time, and the drought area has been reduced obviously in a 20-year cycle, the severity of drought also have been reduced. In conclusion, it was predicted that 6 to 8 regions will be in the low level water condition in 2019 and 2020. 【Conclusion】Ji’an area should focus on drought prevention work in the autumn and winter seasons, and pay attention to the large-scale drought events that may occur in the early 2020s. © 2019 Office of Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. All rights reserved.