城市住宅用地年度供应量预测方法研究

本研究在平均增长法、回归分析法、用地定额指标法的基础上,尝试采用一种着眼于供需双方并系统考虑影响因素的预测方法,对实证研究区域的影响住宅用地供应量的相关因素做了全面系统的分析,目的是为了研究一套科学合理的确定年度住宅用地供应量的方法。研究结果表明,该研究方法选择的因素涉及有关法律法规、经济发展计划、土地利用总体规划、土地利用相关政策,因此用该方法确定的年度住宅用地供应量既符合我国土地利用的有关法律法规,又能满足经济社会发展的需求,而且不违背土地利用总体规划,并与土地利用相关政策相协调,最终将达到住宅用地的供需平衡,促进土地一级市场和房地产市场的正常运转。

Research on the method of forecasting annual urban residential land supply

Based on the average growth rate,regression analysis and land use ration index,using a forecasting method which focus on the amounts as well as the influence factors of both supply and demand,the related influence factors of residential land supply amount was analyzed in order to seek a scientific method confirming the annual residential land supply in the study.It was shown that the selective factors are with regard to some relevant laws and regulations,economical developmental plan,land use plan,land use policies and so on.The annual residential land supply confirmed by this method did not only accord with chinese relevant laws and regulations of land use,but also satisfy the demand of economic and social development.At the same time,it corresponded with the land use plan and the land use policies.Ultimately,it reached a balance between land supply and demand and improved normal operation of the primary market and the real estate market.