中国干旱区农户气候变化感知及适应性行为研究

从农户气候变化感知视角探讨气候变化适应性行为有效性或者缺失,可以更好地为制定区域性应对气候变化适应性政策提供科学方法和决策依据。利用新疆于田县600户农户调研数据,通过构建Heckman选择模型,定量分析干旱区农户对气候变化的感知及适应性行为的选择偏好的影响因素。研究结果表明,户主性别、从事农业时长、家庭年均纯收入、社会网络、信息资源信任度、距离水源地远近、气候因素变量对气候变化感知有显著影响,而户主性别、从事农业时长、家庭年均纯收入、能否获得借贷、社会网络、距离水源地远近、气候因素变量对适应性行为有显著性影响。建议在政策制定和实施过程中,地方政府应发挥主导作用,同时制定各种相关政策培育农户应对气候变化的应对能力,最终实现生态、经济与社会的综合可持续发展。

Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Their Adapting Behaviors in Arid Region of China

In view of the farmers' perceptions of climate change, we discuss the effectiveness or the lack of adaption behaviors which will be in a better position to provide scientific methods and decision-making on the district-level policies for combating climate change. According to the investigated data from 600 farmer households in Yutian County, Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region, the article quantitatively analyzed the influencing factors on the farmers' perception and the preferences for the adapting behaviors of climate change by building the Heckman model. Results show that some variables have significant impacts on the farmers' perception of climate change, including the gender of householder, time length of engaging in agriculture, annual household net income, social networks, trust in information sources, nearness to water sources and climatic factors. Further, the variables such as the head of household gender, time length of engaging in agriculture, annual household net income, lending capacity, social networks, nearness to the water sources and climatic factors have significant impacts on the adapting behaviors. It is proposed that the local government must play a district-level leading role in the process of policy making and policy implementing. At the same time, the local government should make a variety of relevant policies to cultivate the farmers' self-development ability to combat climate change and ultimately achieve the comprehensively sustainable development of ecological, economy and society.