我国南方冬季极端降水与印度洋海温的关系

利用我国南方229个站1962～2012年冬季降水量资料和美国国家海洋、大气管理局（NOAA）提供的1961 ～2011年全球逐月扩展重建海表温度（SST）资料,采用EOF分析、合成分析和SVD分解等方法,分析了我国南方冬季极端降水事件的年际异常与印度洋海温的关系.结果表明,我国南方冬季极端降水和印度洋海温均呈上升趋势,且均在1980年左右发生了突变;印度洋存在2个海温关键区（北印度洋、西南印度洋）,影响着我国南方冬季极端降水事件,关键影响时段是前一年12月～当年2月（简称冬季）;北印度洋冬季海温与江南地区、华南地区东部、淮河流域的冬季极端降水量存在显著正相关,西南印度洋冬季海温与江南地区中西部、西南地区东南部、华南地区东部以及江淮地区的冬季极端降水量存在显著正相关.

Relationship between the Extreme Precipitation in South China and Indian Ocean SST

Based on winter 9recipitation data of 229 weather stations in south China from 1962 to 2012 and 1961 -2011 global expansion re- construction SST data from month to month provided by the national oceanic and atmospheric administration （NOAA）, winter annual anomaly of the extreme precipitation events in south China and the relationship between it and Indian Ocean SST was discussed using EOF analysis and synthetic analysis, SVD decomposition methods. The results showed that the extreme precipitation in south China and Indian Ocean SST is on the rise and mutation happened around 1980. There are two SST key area （the northern Indian Ocean, southwest of the Indian Ocean） in Indi- an Ocean, and they affect the extreme precipitation events in winter in south China, the key influence period is from December to the next February. North winter SST in Indian Ocean and eastern Jiangnan region, southern China, extreme precipitation in Huaihe River in winter, there were significant positive correlation. There is a significant positive correlation between the sea southwest of India ocean area SST and the winter extreme precipitation in the south of the Yangtze River and the midwest, southeast in southwest China, south China and Jianghuai re- gion.